Epidemiology of Seasonal Coronaviruses: Establishing the Context for the Emergence of Coronavirus Disease 2019.

Antonia Ho,Diogo F P Marques,Jim Mcmenamin,Pablo R Murcia,Rory N Gunson,Sema Nickbakhsh

doi:10.1093/infdis/jiaa185

Abstract

Public health preparedness for coronavirus (CoV) disease 2019 (COVID-19) is challenging in the absence of setting-specific epidemiological data. Here we describe the epidemiology of seasonal CoVs (sCoVs) and other cocirculating viruses in the West of Scotland, United Kingdom. We analyzed routine diagnostic data for >70 000 episodes of respiratory illness tested molecularly for multiple respiratory viruses between 2005 and 2017. Statistical associations with patient age and sex differed between CoV-229E, CoV-OC43, and CoV-NL63. Furthermore, the timing and magnitude of sCoV outbreaks did not occur concurrently, and coinfections were not reported. With respect to other cocirculating respiratory viruses, we found evidence of positive, rather than negative, interactions with sCoVs. These findings highlight the importance of considering cocirculating viruses in the differential diagnosis of COVID-19. Further work is needed to establish the occurrence/degree of cross-protective immunity conferred across sCoVs and with COVID-19, as well as the role of viral coinfection in COVID-19 disease severity.

Highlights

Public health preparedness for coronavirus (CoV) disease 2019 (COVID-19) is challenging in the absence of setting-specific epidemiological data
In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared the global spread of coronavirus (CoV) disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by a human CoV that emerged in China in December 2019, a pandemic [1]
Numbers of seasonal CoVs (sCoVs) detections increased before pandemic influenza (March 2011 to September 2017), likely owing to enhanced virological testing of acute respiratory illnesses; the overall number of sCoV detections rose from 545 before, to 2072 following the pandemic influenza period

Summary

Introduction

Public health preparedness for coronavirus (CoV) disease 2019 (COVID-19) is challenging in the absence of setting-specific epidemiological data. The infection incidence and levels of severe illness associated with COVID-19 remains unclear. In this instance, epidemiological data on seasonal CoVs (sCoVs) may provide valuable information about individuals and seasonal conditions favoured by, or limiting, an invading CoV. A key determinant governing the invasion and persistence success of a new pathogen is the abundance of susceptible hosts Such population susceptibility may be difficult to define owing to preexisting cross-protective immunity in individuals previously exposed to antigenically related pathogens, as demonstrated for pandemic influenza A H1N1 in 2009 [5]. Our group previously reported on the comparative epidemiological characteristics of acute viral

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Conclusion