Epidemiology of dengue fever in Guatemala.

Leticia Del Carmen Castillo Signor,Luis E Escobar,Yolanda Mencos,Mariana Castaneda-Guzman,Agnes Matope,Thomas Edwards,Emily R Adams,Luis E Cuevas

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008535

Abstract

Dengue fever occurs worldwide and about 1% of cases progress to severe haemorrhage and shock. Dengue is endemic in Guatemala and its surveillance system could document long term trends. We analysed 17 years of country-wide dengue surveillance data in Guatemala to describe epidemiological trends from 2000 to 2016.Data from the national dengue surveillance database were analysed to describe dengue serotype frequency, seasonality, and outbreaks. We used Poisson regression models to compare the number of cases each year with subsequent years and to estimate incidence ratios within serotype adjusted by age and gender. 91,554 samples were tested. Dengue was confirmed by RT-qPCR, culture or NS1-ELISA in 7097 (7.8%) cases and was IgM ELISA-positive in 19,290 (21.1%) cases. DENV1, DENV2, DENV3, and DENV4 were detected in 2218 (39.5%), 2580 (45.9%), 591 (10.5%), and 230 (4.1%) cases. DENV1 and DENV2 were the predominant serotypes, but all serotypes caused epidemics. The largest outbreak occurred in 2010 with 1080 DENV2 cases reported. The incidence was higher among adults during epidemic years, with significant increases in 2005, 2007, and 2013 DENV1 outbreaks, the 2010 DENV2 and 2003 DENV3 outbreaks. Adults had a lower incidence immediately after epidemics, which is likely linked to increased immunity.

Highlights

Dengue is widespread across the tropics with up to 3.97 billion individuals living in areas at risk of transmission [1], with an estimated 390 million infections occurring each year [2]
All four dengue serotypes circulate in the country, with dengue 1 and 2 being the predominant serotypes
We report that adults in Guatemala have a lower likelihood of infection the year after an epidemic, which might be linked to an increased immunity in the population

Summary

Introduction

Dengue is widespread across the tropics with up to 3.97 billion individuals living in areas at risk of transmission [1], with an estimated 390 million infections occurring each year [2]. The number of cases reported worldwide each year has increased from 15,497 cases in the 1960s, to one million in the 2000s [5] and 96 million cases per year in the last decade [2]. These increases are due to parallel increases in urbanization, travel and population density, in the Americas and South-East Asia, facilitating dengue’s geographical expansion [6] outside traditional endemic areas [7] [8] [9]. Infection with one serotype provides serotype-specific immunity without significant cross protection for other serotypes and a follow-on infection with a different DENV serotype carries an increased risk of disease severity through antibody mediated enhancement [13]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion