Epidemiology of COVID-19 and the Utility of Cycle Threshold (Ct) Values in Predicting the Severity of Disease.

Abstract

Advanced molecular diagnostic methods like real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) play a vital role in the early recognition of viral infections, including the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Therefore, in the context of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, this study aimed to determine the correlation of cycle threshold (Ct) values with symptoms in COVID-19-positive patients. A retrospective study was conducted in a virus research diagnostic laboratory (VRDL) at a COVID-19-dedicated tertiary care hospital in South India. A total of 5563 COVID-19-positive patients were analyzed for symptom spectrum and duration of illness with Ct values of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Around 80% (n= 4401) of the patients were symptomatic and the rest were asymptomatic. Among the symptomatic patients, fever (66%) was the most common symptom. About 44% of symptomatic patients had a low Ct value (Ct ≤ 24). There was a significant difference in symptoms among patients with low, medium, and high Ct values. In the subpopulation of symptomatic patients analyzed for the association of Ct value and duration of illness, the mean duration of illness was three days and almost 88% of the patients were tested within five days of onset of symptoms. It has been observed that a shorter duration of illness lowers the Ct values. A significant association was seen between the mean Ct value and days since symptom onset (p-value = 0.016). Most of the symptomatic patients had lower Ct values in comparison to the asymptomatic patients. A significant association between low Ct values and the duration of symptoms observed in our study explains the viral dynamics, i.e., higher viral shedding at the onset of symptoms and declinesthereafter.