Epidemiological Manifestations and Risk Assessment of Melanoma and other Skin Cancers in Altaiskiy Krai

Abstract

Background.In recent decade, skin cancers are considered as a serious threat to the population health. Goal. Assessment of the dynamics of indicators characterizing the epidemiological manifestations of melanoma and other skin cancers among the population of the Altaiskiy krai in 2007–2016, as well as making a forecast for the next ten-year period.Materials and methods.The general and standardized melanoma and other skin cancers incidence (mortality) rates of the Altaiskiy krai population for the period 2007– 2016 have been calculated. A component analysis of the dynamic changes in morbidity during the studied period was carried out. The risk of development to 75, 85 years old and throughout life of the studied cancers was assessed for a residents of the Altaiskiy krai. The nonlinear extrapolation method was used to calculate the predicted values for the next ten years. Results. The melanoma and other skin cancers incidence rates in the population of Altaiskiy krai in the study period were 5.7 (95% CI 5.4 – 6.0) and 63.4 (95% CI 62.4 – 64.4) per 100 th population and tended to increase (5.2 and 3.1% per year, respectively), which was due to both demographic processes (42.1 and 68.6% respectively), and activation of risk factors (80.6 and 66.7%, respectively). The risk of melanoma and other skin cancer over a lifetime for a resident of the Altaiskiy krai was 0.37 and 4.12%, respectively.Conclusion.Thus, the revealed unfavorable tendencies to the growth of melanoma and other skin cancers morbidity rates in Altaiskiy krai during the studied period testify to the need to improve preventive measures and surveillance.