Epidemiological consideration for death causes among Japanese: focused on age, time, and birth cohort effects

Abstract

This study aimed to clarify the death causes among Japanese. National vital statistics data from 1995 to 2020 were analyzed using the mean polish process. The results showed that deaths from cancer increased after middle age, and deaths from heart disease, pneumonia, and cerebrovascular disease increased after later life (age effect). Recently, mortality from cerebrovascular disease, heart disease, and pneumonia is decreasing (time effect). More individuals in the birth cohort born after 1906 died from cancer compared to that of earlier generations who mainly died from heart disease, pneumonia, and cerebrovascular disease (birth cohort effect). The time effect is more modifiable and/or depending on social conditions and interventions compared to that of the age effect. In Japan, if lifestyle-related diseases that are risk factors for cerebrovascular and heart diseases, such as hypertension, are further prevented or treated, mortality from such diseases will decrease consequently.