Epidemiological characteristics and trends of notifiable infectious diseases in China from 1986 to 2016.

Guilian Li,Kanglin Wan,Haican Liu,Ruibai Wang,Zhiguang Liu,Xiangfeng Dou,Li Wan,Xiuqin Zhao,Machao Li,Chenqi Yan,Lili Zhao,Yi Jiang

doi:10.7189/jogh.10.020803

Abstract

BackgroundSince the 1980s, China has undergone significant social change and the incidence of infectious diseases has also changed considerably. Here, we report the epidemiological features and changes in notifiable infectious diseases in China from 1986 to 2016 to explore the factors contributing to the successful control of infectious diseases and the challenges faced in the prevention and control of infectious diseases.MethodsThe data of notifiable infectious diseases in China from 1986 to 2016 were collected from the monthly analysis report of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System. Joinpoint regression models were used to examine incidence and mortality trends from 1986 to 2016. IBM SPSS Statistics version 22.0, Excel 2010 and R x64 3.5.2 were used for data analysis.ResultsA total of 132 858 005 cases of notifiable infectious diseases were reported over these 31 years, with an average yearly incidence of 342.14/100 000. There were 284 694 deaths with an average yearly mortality rate of 0.73/100 000. The overall incidence and overall mortality of notifiable infectious diseases both showed a “U” distribution (ie, a decrease, stable, an increase, stable again). The top five diseases in terms of incidence were hand, foot and mouth disease, viral hepatitis, tuberculosis, other infectious causes of diarrhea and dysentery, accounting for 78.0% of all reported cases. The top five causes of death were HIV/AIDS, rabies, tuberculosis, viral hepatitis and epidemic encephalitis B, which accounted for 76.07% of all mortalities. The diseases with the top five fatality rates were rabies, H5N1, H7N9, HIV/AIDS and plague, with rates of 91.06%, 66.07%, 38.51%, 25.19% and 10.31%, respectively.ConclusionsThis analysis will benefit the future monitoring of infectious diseases and public health measures in China.

Highlights

Since the 1980s, China has undergone significant social change and the incidence of infectious diseases has changed considerably
A total of 132 858 005 cases of notifiable infectious diseases were reported over these 31 years, with an average yearly incidence of 342.14/100 000
During the three decadebsa,stehseeayrcehainrgly incidence of all ntohtroifuigahbolethienr fseocurtcioesus diseases presented a “U”-shaped distribution (Figure 1, Pan(ne=l 2A1)1.7T) he annual percentage changes (AAPC) of all notifiable i(nnf=ec4)tious diseases was 0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) = -2.0 to 1.0, P = 0.7) with the highest yearly incidence of 675.90/100 000 in 1986

Summary

Methods

The data of notifiable infectious diseases in China from 1986 to 2016 were collected from the monthly analysis report of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System. IBM SPSS Statistics version 22.0, Excel 2010 and R x64 3.5.2 were used for data analysis. The data come from the monthly analysis report of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System from 1986 to 2016, which was reported by the Division of Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The data includes the numbers of cases and deaths per month, and those of the same month in the previous year were included. The annual population data for the years 1986– 2016 were collected from the data published on the website of the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics

Results

Discussion

Conclusion