Epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering analysis on pulmonary tuberculosis in Changsha from 2013 to 2016

Abstract

To analyze the epidemic characteristics and to explore the spatial-temporal clusters of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Changsha from 2013 to 2016. Methods: Descriptive analysis and space-time permutation scan statistic were used to analyze the reported PTB cases in Changsha from 2013 to 2016. Results: Between 2013 and 2016, a total of 17 721 PTB cases were reported in Changsha, with annual reported incidence rate at 60.87 per 100 000 population. Males and individuals aged 15 to <60 years accounted for higher proportion of PTB cases compared to females and other age groups. The number of reported PTB cases reached peak from March to May in each year. The space-time permutation scan statistic identified one most likely cluster and two secondary clusters of PTB cases. The most likely cluster covered most areas of Liuyang City and the North-east part of Changsha County from October 1, 2013 to February 28, 2014. The first cluster occupied 12 towns (streets) in Kaifu District and Changsha County in December 2016. The second cluster included four towns (streets) in Yuhua District and Tianxin District from March 1 to September 30, in 2013. Conclusion: Between 2013 and 2016, significant space-time clusters of PTB cases were identified in Changsha. These findings could provide a guide for development of regional intervention strategies for PTB control.