Abstract
BackgroundIn May 2020, the UK National Health Service (NHS) Test and Trace programme was launched in England in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The programme was first rolled out on the Isle of Wight and included version 1 of the NHS contact tracing app. The aim of the study was to make a preliminary assessment of the epidemiological impact of the Test and Trace programme using publicly available data.MethodsWe used COVID-19 daily case data from Public Health England to infer incidence of new infections and estimate the reproduction number (R) for each of the 150 Upper-Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in England and nationally, before and after the launch of the Test and Trace programme on the Isle of Wight. We used Bayesian and maximum-likelihood methods to estimate R and compared the Isle of Wight with other UTLAs using a synthetic control method.FindingsWe observed significant decreases in incidence and R on the Isle of Wight immediately after the launch of the Test and Trace programme. The Isle of Wight had a marked reduction in R, from 1·3 before the Test and Trace programme to 0·5 after by one of our measures, and went from having the third highest R before the Test and Trace programme, to the twelfth lowest afterwards compared with other UTLAs.InterpretationOur results show that the epidemic on the Isle of Wight was controlled quickly and effectively after the launch of Test and Trace. Our findings highlight the need for further research to determine the causes of the reduction in the spread of the disease, as these could be translated into local and national non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in the period before a treatment or vaccination for COVID-19 becomes available.FundingLi Ka Shing Foundation and UK Economic and Social Research Council.
Highlights
As part of efforts to control the spread of COVID-19 using non-pharmaceutical interventions, many countries are prioritising community testing, case isolation, and contact tracing.[1]
It is common to see pillar 1 and pillar 2 data displayed in stacked histograms, interpreting true incidence from these plots is non-trivial because of the different testing lag times between the two pillars
After introduction of the Test and Trace programme, maximum-likelihood estimates of R on the Isle of Wight were lower than the national rates
Summary
As part of efforts to control the spread of COVID-19 using non-pharmaceutical interventions, many countries are prioritising community testing, case isolation, and contact tracing.[1]. The traditional approach relies on noticing and remembering contacts and an efficient infrastructure of trained public health officials, and the digital approach relies on establishing well-calibrated new technology and appreciable population uptake and adherence. The former approach is a more familiar intervention and a phone call might be more effective once received, but the speed of notification of the latter approach might be critical given the speed of COVID-19 transmission.[4]
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