Epidemiological aspects of Ebola virus disease in Guinea (december 2013-april 2016)

Abstract

Ebola Zaire species variant Makona between its emergence in December 2013 and April 2016, resulted in an epidemic of Guinea importance and unprecedented gravity with 3814 reported cases of which 3358 were confirmed (88.0%) and 2544 were died (66.7%). The epidemic has evolved in phases: a silent phase without identification of all fatal cases until February 2014; a first outbreak from March 2014, when the alarm is raised and the virus detected, which lasted until July 2014; a second increase, which was the most intense, from August 2014 to January 2015 focused primarily on the forest Guinea; and a final increase from February 2015 centered on lower Guinea and the capital Conakry. Adapting strategies in 2015 (initiative "Zero Ebola in 60 days" active case search and suspicious deaths and awareness of active prefectures, microbanding the last affected communities and raking around these localities) and ring vaccination of contacts around confirmed cases has allowed to gradually control the main outbreak in October 2015. But a survivor was originally resurgence in forest areas between March and April 2016 with 10 cases including 8 deaths. The epidemic has particularly affected the forest Guinea region (44% and 48% of Guinean cases and deaths), elderly women (≥ 50 years), and health professionals (211 cases including 115 deaths); however, almost one-third of the patients (32.6%) was not provided supportive care in the Ebola centers. The epidemic is currently marked by the resurgence of small foci, from excreting subjects cured of the virus who have been controlled so far successfully. The survivors are the subject of special attention. It is necessary to learn lessons from the response to better prepare for the future, to improve knowledge about the natural history of the Ebola virus disease, and to rethink communication in this regard with the public and its leaders.