Epidemiologic Look at Teen Birth [ID 2683394

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: To take an epidemiologic look at the most up-to-date geographical variation in the average teenage birth rates by county in the United States. METHODS: Data from the National Center for Health Statistics were used in this retrospective cohort to count the total number of live births to females aged 15–19 years by county between 2003 and 2020. Software for disease surveillance and spatial cluster analysis was used to identify clusters of high or low birth rates in counties or areas of greater than 100,000 teenage females. The data were then further analyzed by unemployment rate, no high school diploma rate, Hispanic rate, African American rate, and poverty rate per county as influence on the prediction of teenage birth rate. RESULTS: Spatial analysis identified 94 significant spatial clusters of teenage births. When adjusted for time and space, there were three significant clusters within Texas, all within 2013–2020, showing a steep increase in teenage birth rates. The top cluster with a 60% higher chance of teenage birth than the remainder of the country. Individual covariates examined showed the best predicter of teenage birth is unemployment followed by low education. CONCLUSION: Nationally, teenage births have declined over the last 30 years; however, clusters of elevated teenage birth rates remain predominantly in the southeastern United States and Texas. When adjusting for covariates of social determinants of health, some of these clusters remained, indicating other factors with influence on teenage birth rate.