Epidemiologic Impact of the New Guidelines for the Diagnosis of Acute Rheumatic Fever

Abstract

To estimate the incidence of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) in a metropolitan area of Northern Italy and study how the introduction of the 2015 revised Jones criteria affects the epidemiology in a region with moderate to high incidence of ARF. The incidence of ARF in children 5-14 years old living in the Province of Turin was estimated using low-risk criteria in a 10-year period (group A patients). The proportion of patients fulfilling only high-risk (HR) criteria (group B patients) was also calculated both prospectively (from July 2015 through December 2016) and retrospectively (from January 2007 through June 2015). One hundred thirty-five group A patients were identified for an annual incidence of 3.2-9.6 out of 100 000 children. The use of HR criteria identified an additional 28 patients (group B), resulting in a 20.7% increase in the incidence of ARF. Age, sex annual incidence, and seasonal distribution pattern were comparable between group A and group B patients. HR criteria should be used for the diagnosis ARF in our region. The application of these criteria led to a 20% increase in patients with the diagnosis of ARF. The characteristics of patients fulfilling only HR criteria are similar to the remaining patients, suggesting that these criteria are sensitive and specific.