Epidemiologic and spatio-temporal characteristics of hepatitis E in China, 2004-2014

Abstract

Objective: To describe and analyze the epidemiologic and spatio-temporal characteristics of hepatitis E in China from 2004 to 2014. Methods: Data on the incidence of hepatitis E in 31 provinces (municipality and autonomous region) from 2004 to 2014, were collected. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) was applied to decompose the time-series data to accurately describe the trend of hepatitis E incidence. Mathematic model was used to estimate the annual change of incidence in each age group and the whole province. Software ArcGIS 10.1 and SaTScan 9.01 were used to analyze the spatio-temporal clusters. Results: During 2004-2014, a total of 245 414 hepatitis E cases were reported in China. The overall incidence showed a slight increase (OR=1.05, 95%CI: 1.03-1.10). Incidence rates on hepatitis E were discovered different across the provinces, with significant increase appearing in the southern, central and northwestern areas. The highest increase was seen in the elderly, especially in the 65-69 and 70-74 year-olds. Results from the Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the "high-high cluster" was moving from the north to the south and the "low-low cluster" disappeared as time went by. Data from Spatio-temporal scanning showed that there were five spatio-temporal clustering areas across the country. Conclusion: The overall incidence of hepatitis E was on the rise from 2004 to 2014, in China, but with differences seen across the areas and age groups.