Abstract
The emergence and reemergence of coronavirus epidemics sparked renewed concerns from global epidemiology researchers and public health administrators. Mathematical models that represented how contact tracing and follow-up may control Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) transmissions were developed for evaluating different infection control interventions, estimating likely number of infections as well as facilitating understanding of their likely epidemiology. We reviewed mathematical models for contact tracing and follow-up control measures of SARS and MERS transmission. Model characteristics, epidemiological parameters and intervention parameters used in the mathematical models from seven studies were summarized. A major concern identified in future epidemics is whether public health administrators can collect all the required data for building epidemiological models in a short period of time during the early phase of an outbreak. Also, currently available models do not explicitly model constrained resources. We urge for closed-loop communication between public health administrators and modelling researchers to come up with guidelines to delineate the collection of the required data in the midst of an outbreak and the inclusion of additional logistical details in future similar models.
Highlights
In the 21st century, there were three large-scale outbreaks in human populations caused by emerging coronaviruses (Co-Vs): (i) Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003; (ii) Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in 2012 primarily in the Middle East Saudi Arabian Peninsula region; and (iii) MERS outbreak in 2015 primarily in South Korea
Sixteen articles were duplicated from the two databases, and thirty-one unique articles were identified from the two databases for assessment of their abstracts using the selection criteria
No one-size guideline is available for containment of both SARS and MERS or other emerging coronavirus
Summary
In the 21st century, there were three large-scale outbreaks in human populations caused by emerging coronaviruses (Co-Vs): (i) Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003; (ii) Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in 2012 primarily in the Middle East Saudi Arabian Peninsula region; and (iii) MERS outbreak in 2015 primarily in South Korea. Since their emergence, World Health Organization (WHO) had been notified of more than 8000 confirmed cases of SARS in countries [1] and more than 2200 confirmed cases of MERS in countries [2]. Diseases caused by them were deadly, with a mortality rate of 29.8% for MERS [7] and 7% for SARS [8]
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