Epidemic dynamics behavior in some bus transport networks

Abstract

We abstract bus transport networks (BTNs) to complex networks using the Space P approach. First, we select three actual BTNs in three major cities in China, namely, Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou. Using the SIS model, we simulate and study the epidemic spreading in the three BTNs. We obtain the density of infected vertices varying with time and the stationary density of infected vertices varying with infection rate. Second, we simulate and study the epidemic spreading in a recently introduced BTN evolution model, the network properties of which correspond well with those of actual BTNs. Third, we use mean-field theory to analyze the epidemic dynamics behavior of the BTN evolution model and obtain the theoretical epidemic threshold of this model. The theoretical value agrees well with the simulation results. Based on the work in this paper, we provide the following possible forecasts for epidemic dynamics in actual BTNs. An actual BTN should have a finite positive epidemic threshold. If the effective infection rate is above this threshold, the epidemic spread in the network and the density of infected vertices finally stabilizes in a balanced state. Below this threshold, the number of infected vertices decays exponentially fast and the epidemic cannot spread on a large scale.