Abstract
Crime in northern Central America is a public health and societal issue that is common and costly. The region has experienced the highest intentional homicide rates for nearly two decades (2004-2020) at 50 per 100,000 population (The World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2012). The regional concentration of homicidal risk factors includes notorious street gangs (or maras) and their interactions, contiguous factors related to illicit drug trafficking and their spillover effects, economic forces, among others. Outside of economic forces affecting crime, the social forces affecting homicide rates are not well understood and often are unobserved characteristics with a strong spatial dimension. This study investigates the impact of illicit drug price volatility and Purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) per capita on homicide rates per 100,000 individuals in northern Central America.
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