Envisioning a global forest transition: Status, role, and implications

Abstract

Satellite data-driven discoveries are fuelling the literature on forest transitions, particularly in quantifying slow, large-scale trends. Mather’s forest transition concept depicts the inflection point marking a change from decreasing to increasing forest area. This theory is being elucidated using satellite images of global forest cover from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration of the United States (NASA), the European Space Agency (ESA), and now from the FAO’s recently introduced geospatial monitoring platform SEPAL 2.1. Recently, a series of high profile papers have illuminated the concept of the forest transition using analysis of remote sensing-based forest cover images. Defined as an increase in global forest cover, analysis of satellite images over the past thirty years suggests that a global forest transition has occurred. However, satellite data provide less information about biodiversity and carbon sequestration outcomes in new forests. Incorporating other data sources on the quality of forest transitions offers the potential to develop better reforestation programs, address climate change goals and enhance other ecological and human benefits. This article presents a view on remote sensing, biodiversity, and carbon science that has changed the study of forest transitions, and an outline of anticipated and suggested science and policy directions.