Envisioning a decision support system for the planning of alternative fuel bunkering operations in Singapore

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Abstract In the coming decades, the global maritime industry will face a most formidable technological and societal challenge set by climate change – achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. To meet this target, ships are shifting towards the use of low-carbon alternative fuels such as ammonia and methanol. While this paradigm shift to the bunkering of greener fuels is encouraging, it also introduces a new and unique type of environmental risk in the unfortunate scenario of a spill. In the past decades numerous environmental studies have been conducted and mitigation techniques for petroleum oil spills have been developed. However, ammonia and methanol spills are comparatively less understood globally and in the region. There is a significant knowledge gap regarding how the complex atmosphere, hydrodynamic and environmental conditions of the Singapore Straits may influence the dispersion and assimilation of hypothetical ammonia or methanol plumes. Together with other emerging alternative fuels such as electricity and hydrogen, ammonia and methanol have different physical and chemical properties in ambient water compared to conventional LNG or petroleum oil which makes modelling the risk they pose to the environment more challenging. In view of these challenges, the key objective of our research is to develop an operationally running decision support system (DSS) that combines physics-based atmospheric and coastal hydrodynamic models that can forecast the marine and atmospheric plume dispersion of alternative fuels. This forecasting capability will be supplemented with data-driven and rule-based optimisation algorithms that can be used to determine the optimal mitigation scenarios which minimises the potential environmental impacts. Overall, the DSS will integrate observation data, models, mitigation scenarios, and decision-making tools pertaining to efficient and safe bunkering operations within Singapore’s ports. This is essential as the use of alternative fuels in maritime industry becomes more common in Singapore and around the world. Such a system will aid relevant authorities to better calculate risk and plan mitigation measures at designated bunkering locations and periods having optimal atmospheric, hydraulics, and environmental conditions. In this paper, we describe the potential consequences of alternative fuel spills, mitigation measures and a plan for assessing their environmental impact within the context of Singapore. We will review the limited current efforts to model ammonia spills in the literature and propose for a more integrated modelling approach through the DSS.