Environmental variables and their interaction effects on chlorophyll-a in coastal waters of the southern Caspian Sea: assessment by multiple regression grey models

Abstract

Main and interaction effects of environmental parameters on variations of chlorophyll-a along the coast of the southern Caspian Sea were determined. Parameters such as temperature, conductivity, turbidity salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, chlorophyll-a and nutrients were evaluated monthly in four transects and different depths (0, 5, 10, 20, 35 and 50 m), using multiple regression and grey relational analysis. Additionally, the long-term data (1994–2009) on the seasonal phytoplanktonic variation were included in our discussion. There was a good agreement between the observed and predicted values in the models that included the interaction effects during spring, summer, autumn and winter, with the adjusted R2 of 0.64, 0.63, 0.60 and 0.54, respectively. Temperature and its interactions were found to be the most important factor on chlorophyll-a throughout the year. Overall, the most effective factors were seasonally categorized as: organic phosphorus, ammonium and their interactions (spring); organic phosphorus, nitrate, DO, silica and their interactions (summer); organic phosphorus, pH, DO and their interactions (autumn); pH, ammonium, DO and their interactions (winter). Thermocline, riverine transport, nitrification and the presence of Mnemiopsis leidyi and Cyanophyta were found to be the most important phenomena affecting the dynamics of nutrients and phytoplanktonic biomass in the area. In the distribution of chlorophyll-a, the interaction effects of different environmental parameters proved to be more important than their individual effects. The multiple regression and grey analyses were also found to be useful tools to understand the interactions between phytoplankton and environmental factors.