Abstract
As the climate changes, the effects of agriculture on the environment may change. In the future, an increasing frequency of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves, and excess moisture, is expected. Past research on the interaction between environment and resources has focused on climate change effects on various sectors, including agricultural production (especially crop production), but research on the effects of climate change using agri-environmental indicators (AEI) of environmental sustainability of agriculture is limited. The aim of this paper was to begin to address this knowledge gap by exploring the effects of future drought and excess moisture on environmental sustainability of agriculture. Methods included the use of a conceptual framework, literature reviews, and an examination of the climate sensitivities of the AEI models. The AEIs assessed were those for the themes of soil and water quality, and farmland management as developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Additional indicators included one for desertification and another for water supply and demand. The study area was the agricultural region of the Canadian Prairie Provinces. We found that the performance of several indicators would likely decrease in a warming climate with more extremes. These indicators with declining performances included risks for soil erosion, soil salinization, desertification, water quality and quantity, and soil contamination. Preliminary trends of other indicators such as farmland management were not clear. AEIs are important tools for measuring climate impacts on the environmental sustainability of agriculture. They also indicate the success of adaptation measures and suggest areas of operational and policy development. Therefore, continued reporting and enhancement of these indicators is recommended.
Highlights
Considerable changes in climate variables relevant to agriculture and the environment have already occurred and have been documented [1,2,3]
Drought and excess moisture affect most aspects of environmental sustainability, we focused on agri-environmental indicators (AEI) categories and their indicators for soil quality, water quality, farmland management, and water supply and demand, as guided by our conceptual framework (Figure 1), expertise and available literature
Descriptions of the environmental sustainability of agriculture as affected by drought and excess moisture are provided for several AEIs
Summary
Considerable changes in climate variables relevant to agriculture and the environment have already occurred and have been documented [1,2,3]. An increase in climate extremes, including droughts, excess moisture, and heat waves is expected for the Canadian Prairies [5,6]. These extremes can often have adverse effects on the environmental sustainability of agriculture. More recent work confirms that future drought characteristics (frequency of droughts, duration, and intensity) show increases over the southern prairies [7]. Increases in such extremes would have adverse effects on the environmental sustainability of agriculture. The effects of droughts and excessive moisture on environmental sustainability are of special concern, and are the subject of this paper
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