Abstract
The cassava mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti) is one of the main pests in the world and the risk of invasion posed by this pest is becoming more and more serious with regard to increasing areas of planting cassava in Asia. It is urgent to analyze the potential geography distribution of P. manihoti among cassava in China. In this study, three different ecological modeling methods (Maxent, ENFA and Mahalanobis typicality) were used to predict its potential distribution. The results show that Maxent has the best prediction performance, followed by ENFA, and Mahalanobis typicality has the poorest performance. Based on prediction outcome of Maxent suitable areas of P. manihoti in China are limited in Hainan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian and a few regions of Sichuan, Hunan and Jiangxi. The jackknife analysis indicates that four variables have notable influence on the distribution pattern of P. manihoti, including in in Temperature annual range, Min temperature of coldest month, r, Temperature seasonality and Isothermality.
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