Environmental suitability forAgrilus auroguttatus(Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in Mexico using MaxEnt and database records of fourQuercus(Fagaceae) species

Abstract

AbstractThe goldspotted oak borerAgrilus auroguttatusSchaeffer is an invasive pest of threeQuercusspecies in southern California, U.S.A. As a native and potentially indigenous exotic species, its distribution and potential damage is largely unknown in Mexico.We used the maximum entropy algorithm to determine the bioclimatic variables that may explain the distribution ofA. auroguttatus, as well as its interaction with the distribution of known hosts in Mexico.Our model calculated high suitability forA. auroguttatusin the biogeographical provinces of California, the northern and southern areas of Sierra Madre Occidental and the northwestern area of the Mexican Plateau; moderate suitability was projected in the Baja California, Sonora and Sierra Madre Occidental provinces. Potential distribution ofA. auroguttatuswas overlapping with native ranges ofQuercus agrifolia,Quercus emoryiTorrey andQuercus hypoleucoidesA. Camus. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (23.6%), isothermality (23.5%), precipitation seasonality (17.3%) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (11.2%) contributed most to explaining its distribution in Mexico.The geographical interaction (i.e. the likelihood that the habitat would be suitable for coexistence) ofA. auroguttatuswith its hosts in Mexico was projected in the California province (46 382.60 km2, probably as an exotic species) and the northwestern areas of Mexican Plateau and Sierra Madre Occidental provinces (74 013.45 km2, probably as native).Determining the areas of environmental suitability forA. auroguttatusand its host distribution can focus ground surveys, contribute to management efforts and assist in the development of risk assessments for Mexico.