Environmental shocks, civil conflict and aid effectiveness

Abstract

Do natural disasters promote conflict or peace? A series of analyses of longitudinal data between 1971 and 2011 shows the modest but significant impact of natural disasters on the likelihood of conflict, conditional on the level of foreign aid in developing countries. This paper argues that frequent natural disasters, through the legitimacy effect and monitoring effect, allow foreign aid to be channeled to marginalized groups and used for its intended development purpose, eventually lowering the likelihood of conflict. This study is the first to incorporate an examination of foreign aid into an analysis of natural disasters and civil conflicts.