Abstract
The paper presents approaches to quantitative and spatial assessment of emergency environmental risks at new sites of pulp and paper production using mathematical statistics, probability theory, and cartographic modeling. Damage assessment is based on the type and sphere (atmosphere, soil, and underground and surface waters) of impact. Although damage assessment considers governmentally approved methodology, the formula suggested for the assessment contains some suitable improvements. In addition, a brief characterization of technological process at pulp and paper plants provides objective substantiation of possible accident scenarios. Conclusions discuss economic and social benefits of pulp and paper plants versus their ecological disadvantages.
Highlights
Increasing attention is paid to issues related to the ascending impact of different hazardous industrial facilities and transport, as a rule, characterized by “technological risk” or “threat of an emergency or emergency situation”
The goal of this work was to define methodological approaches to ecological risk assessment for hazards associated with emergency release of liquid contaminants using Manturovo Pulp and Paper Plant (P&PP) (Kostroma region) as a case study
In general, is estimated by the formula for each component of the geosystem: METHODOLOGY Prior to discussing methods of risk assessment, it is necessary to give the definition to the term “risk”
Summary
Increasing attention is paid to issues related to the ascending impact of different hazardous industrial facilities and transport, as a rule, characterized by “technological risk” or “threat of an emergency or emergency situation”. The goal of this work was to define methodological approaches to ecological risk assessment for hazards associated with emergency release of liquid contaminants using Manturovo Pulp and Paper Plant (P&PP) (Kostroma region) as a case study. To implement a comprehensive assessment of ecological risk, the following problems have to be solved: provide characteristics to pulp and paper industry as a source of environmental risk; 77 ENVIRONMENT assess the likelihood and consequences of emergencies at industrial facilities (to assess emergency risks); M(D) = ΣQ(τ) D, where D is the consequences of i-type emergency; Q(τ) is probability of i-type emergency over a period of time τ. From a mathematical point of view, risk is a mathematical expectance of damages for a considerate period and a product of emergency probability and damage [Akimov et al, 2001]:
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