Abstract
Given that there has been ecological degradation for a long time in Shanxi Province, China. This research addresses this situation by analyzing the energy structure and environmental risk in the past and in the future. Consequently, this study uses two indicator systems, ecosystem interaction system and environmental risk representation, to illustrate the environmental risk in an energy intensive region of China. And we build a BP-SVM model applying a back-propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) arithmetic to predict the future ecology-economy-society system interactions in Shanxi Province. At last, we classify the risk rank by using environmental risk representation indicators. The main conclusions from this research are as follows: Firstly, two indicator systems have advantages in describing the ecological-economy-society interaction especially the human society's impact on the ecosystem over a single indicator system. Secondly, by the BP-SVM model, there is a relatively high ecological risk rank in next few years in Shanxi Province, although it fluctuates occasionally. Finally, this study not only offers recommendations for the government to develop policies to transform from a coal-energy based system to a clean, safe, and efficient modern energy system, but also points out the implications for government administrations in energy intensive areas of developing countries to guide the economic transformation.
Highlights
As a major coal-energy base in China, Shanxi Province has played an important role in the remarkable economic development of China in the past decades, contributing about 25% of the national total coal production and 75% of the exported coal to the other 28 provinces in China [1]
Besides the BP neural network, we find out that the support vector machine (SVM), which is popularized for classification, is another suitable way for environmental risk research
This study extends the previous research in several ways: 1) It builds two indicator systems separately to describe the ecology-economy-society system, one for ecosystem interactions and one for environmental risk representations
Summary
As a major coal-energy base in China, Shanxi Province has played an important role in the remarkable economic development of China in the past decades, contributing about 25% of the national total coal production and 75% of the exported coal to the other 28 provinces in China [1]. As an important energy intensive region in northern China, the heavy demand for coal boosts the development of energy intensive industries in Shanxi. Excessive reliance on a resource-based economy led to problems such as poor economic development and a single industrial structure [3]. Coal mining has caused serious damage to the ecological environment, and the excessive use of resources has led to a the decline in sustainable development capabilities [4]. The heavy metals in the flue gas samples of Shanxi power plant pose a risk to the environment, the elements of Zn and Mn especially pose a very high risk [5]. The water quality in coal mined areas is affected by coal mine pollutants [7], and the heavy metals from sewage treatment plant sludge pose a threat to the
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