Environmental predictors may change at fine scale habitat suitability modelling: implications for conservation of Kashmir musk deer in three protected areas of Uttarakhand, India.

Abstract

The Kashmir musk deer (Moschus cupreus, hereafter KMD) is one of the top conservation priority species which is facing population decline due to poaching, habitat loss, and climate change. Therefore, the long-term survival and viability of KMD populations in their natural habitat require conservation and management of suitable habitats. Hence, the present study attempted to assess the suitable habitat of KMD in three protected areas (PAs) of the Western Himalayan region of Uttarakhand using the Maxent modelling algorithm. Our results suggest that Kedarnath wildlife sanctuary (KWLS) possesses the maximum highly suitable habitats (22.55%) of KMD, followed by Govind Pashu Vihar National Park & Sanctuary (GPVNP&S; 8.33%) and Gangotri National Park (GNP; 5%). Among the environmental variables, altitude was the major contributing factor governing the distribution of KMD in KWLS. In contrast, human footprint in GPVNP&S and precipitation in GNP were the major contributing factors governing the distribution of KMD in these respective PAs. The response curve indicated that habitats with less disturbance falling in the altitudinal zone of 2000-4000m were the most suitable habitat range for the distribution of KMD in all three PAs. However, in the case of GNP suitable habitat of KMD increases with an increase in the value of variables bio_13 (precipitation of wettest month). Further, based on our results, we believe that the predictors of suitable habitat change are site specific and cannot be generalized in the entire distribution range of the species. Therefore, the present study will be helpful in making proper habitat management actions at fine scale for the conservation of KMD.