Abstract
Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.
Highlights
Over the last decade, there has been an overall increase in the number of Atlantic hurricanes and those making landfall in the United States [1]
The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina
We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005
Summary
There has been an overall increase in the number of Atlantic hurricanes and those making landfall in the United States [1]. On an average, ten tropical storms (of which six become hurricanes) develop over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico. Hurricanes usually develop over the warm ocean waters with sea surface temperatures (SST). The formation region of most hurricanes that affect the United States is the Atlantic Ocean, including the Gulf of Mexico. The region of formation is from 5 to 30 north and south of latitudes This region is characterized by warm ocean temperatures, and has sufficient Coriolis acceleration to cause the storm to rotate. During the development of storms, the convective available potential energy or CAPE, is used as an index for large scale disturbances leading to severe weather. Signatures of the intensifying storm from CAPE values may be used for assessing pre-land fall effects to formulate an early warning and prediction of the situation. An early warning prediction and preparedness will give a better crisis planning and emergency management that may reduce loss of life, property, and revenue in the event of high flood surge and inundation apart from others
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