Abstract
Empirical and theoretical studies suggest that marine species respond to ocean warming by shifting ranges poleward and/or into deeper depths. However, future distributional patterns of deep-sea organisms, which comprise the largest ecosystem of Earth, remain poorly known. We explore potential horizontal range shifts of benthic shallow-water and deep-sea Crustacea due to climatic changes within the remainder of the century, and discuss the results in light of species-specific traits related to invasiveness. Using a maximum entropy approach, we estimated the direction and magnitude of distributional shifts for 94 species belonging to 12 orders of benthic marine crustaceans, projected to the years 2050 and 2100. Distance, direction, and species richness shifts between climate zones were estimated conservatively, by considering only areas suitable, non-extrapolative, and adjacent to the currently known distributions. Our hypothesis is that species will present poleward range-shifts, based on results of previous studies. Results reveal idiosyncratic and species-specific responses, with prevailing poleward shifts and a decline of species richness at mid-latitudes, while more frequent shifts between temperate to polar regions were recovered. Shallow-water species are expected to shift longer distances than deep-sea species. Net gain of suitability is slightly higher than the net loss for shallow-water species, while for deep-sea species, the net loss is higher than the gain in all scenarios. Our estimates can be viewed as a set of hypotheses for future analytical and empirical studies, and will be useful in planning and executing strategic interventions and developing conservation strategies.
Highlights
Empirical and theoretical studies suggest that marine species respond to ocean warming by shifting ranges poleward and/or into deeper depths (Poloczanska et al 2013; Saeedi et al 2017; Pinsky et al 2019; Lenoir et al 2020; Chaudhary et al 2021)
Net gain of suitability is slightly higher than the net loss for shallow-water species, while for deep-sea species, the net loss is higher than the gain in all scenarios
Species were categorized into two groups: shallow-water (0–500 m) and deep-sea (> 500 m), as 500 m is the depth at which seasonal variation in physical parameters as well as the influence of sunlight becomes minimal, following the classification by the World Register of DeepSea Species (WoRDSS; http://www.marinespecies.org/deepsea/; Glover 2019) (Fig. 1)
Summary
Empirical and theoretical studies suggest that marine species respond to ocean warming by shifting ranges poleward and/or into deeper depths (Poloczanska et al 2013; Saeedi et al 2017; Pinsky et al 2019; Lenoir et al 2020; Chaudhary et al 2021). Crustaceans are one of the most dominant taxa of both shallow-water and deep-sea communities (Saeedi et al 2019a, b; Saeedi and Brandt 2020) They are among the most successful groups of aquatic alien invaders in the ocean, with life history, behavioral and physiological traits that favor a high rate of establishment and success as invasive species (Karatayev et al 2009; Hänfling et al 2011). The application of environmental matching approaches, of which a key concept is the linkage of species distributions and environmental conditions, can assist in the exploration and forecasting of species range shifts in response to changing environments (Jiménez-Valverde et al 2011; Hänfling et al 2011) Insights gained from such analyses can help elucidate current patterns and provide a first approximation of distributional patterns of marine biodiversity due to anthropogenic climate change (Cheung et al 2016; Robinson et al 2017)
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