Environmental integrity of forest offsets in a changing climate: embedding future climate in Australia’s sinks policy regime

Abstract

Forest carbon sinks are important to Australia’s climate policy, and recent government and business net zero commitments will likely increase demand for forest carbon offsets. At the same time, forests in parts of the country have suffered from prolonged drought and bushfires, and a growing body of research suggests that future climate change could have significant implications for forest carbon sinks’ permanence. This article draws on expert views to explore how incorporating knowledge on the physical risks from climate change can strengthen the environmental integrity of Australia’s forest sinks policy. It finds challenges to and opportunities for strengthening the science, policy, and practice interfaces for forest carbon in a changing climate, and proposes reforms to strengthen the capacity of forests to be a long-term contributor to Australia’s emission targets and climate adaptation policy. These reforms may have relevance to other countries with vulnerable forests and interests in forest carbon offsets.