Environmental impact of 2011 Germany’s nuclear shutdown: a synthetic control study

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article contrasts trajectories of Germany’s nitrogen oxides, sulphur oxides, particulate matter 2.5, and carbon dioxide emissions with a data-driven weighted average of several European countries. Synthetic Germany is constructed to reveal the counterfactual of what would have happened to Germany’s environment in the absence of shutting down eight nuclear reactors in 2011. We find a negative environmental impact of the nuclear shutdown. For instance, from 2010 to 2015, the normalized nitrogen oxides emission in Germany fell from 100 to 92.72, while the emission in the synthetic Germany dropped from 100 to 85.75. One mechanism for the treatment effect is that after the nuclear shutdown, Germany had to use more fossil fuel to generate electricity relative to other countries.