Abstract
Long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration were predicted from environmental variables using Box-Jenkins transfer function models for the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and Suisun Bay. Data used for the analyses were collected continuously on a semimonthly or monthly basis over the 17-yr period between 1971 and 1987. Groups of highly correlated environmental variables were summarized along three environmental axes using principal component analysis. The first environmental axis summarized river flow and specific conductance. The second environmental axis summarized water transparency and the third environmental axis summarized air and water temperature. Chlorophyll concentration was significantly corss-correlated with environmental axes and individual environmental variables. Transfer function models developed to describe changes in chlorophyll concentration over time were characterized by lag responses and described between 41% and 51% of the data variation. Significant cross-correlations between environmental axes and the California climate index (CA SLP) were used to develop a conceptual model of the link between regional climate and estuarine production.
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