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Abstract
This assessment by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) provides the latest scientific update since our most recent comprehensive assessment (Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences, 2019, 18, 595–828). The interactive effects between the stratospheric ozone layer, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and climate change are presented within the framework of the Montreal Protocol and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We address how these global environmental changes affect the atmosphere and air quality; human health; terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; biogeochemical cycles; and materials used in outdoor construction, solar energy technologies, and fabrics. In many cases, there is a growing influence from changes in seasonality and extreme events due to climate change. Additionally, we assess the transmission and environmental effects of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, in the context of linkages with solar UV radiation and the Montreal Protocol.
Highlights
The contribution of the Montreal Protocol to several of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is addressed in this Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) 2020 Update Assessment
No trend in total ozone was detected by the model after 2050, and the trend in DNA-damaging irradiance was attributed to a statistically significant (95% CL) decrease in cloud cover of − 1.4 per decade resulting from increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs)
The study suggests that changes in UV-B irradiance at low- and mid-latitudes during the second half of the twenty-first century will be dominated by factors other than changes in stratospheric ozone [65]
Summary
The contribution of the Montreal Protocol to several of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is addressed in this EEAP 2020 Update Assessment. The Montreal Protocol has been the most successful international treaty to date to mitigate anthropogenic climate change resulting from the increase of GHGs. The recently reported unexpected slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012 [13], which is partially caused by new emissions from eastern China [14], has the potential to delay the recovery of the ozone layer [15] but could have a negative effect on future climate because the GWP of CFC-11 is 4660 times that of C O2 [5, 16]. Tightening the regulations concerning these substances by amending the Montreal Protocol could partially offset the effect of future CO2 emissions and reduce global warming
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