Environmental Effects of China's Export Trade to the Countries along Belt and Road: An Empirical Evidence Based on Inter-Provincial Panel Data.

Abstract

There is a close inherent connection between manufacturing exports and environmental pollution. With the continuous growth of China's export trade to the countries along Belt and Road, the resulting environmental problems have also received much attention. This paper first analyzes the environmental impact mechanism of China's export trade to the countries along Belt and Road. Then based on the dynamic panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2019, we use the SYS-GMM method to make an empirical test from national and regional perspectives and analyze the environmental effects of China's export trade to the countries along Belt and Road. The results show that the environmental effects of export trade are significantly heterogeneous in different regions. In general, export trade has a significant positive scale effect on CO2 emissions; the negative effect of environmental regulation on CO2 emissions can effectively offset the positive effect caused by the growth of output in the capital-intensive sector, and the composition effect is generally negative; the technical effect of China's export trade to the countries along Belt and Road mainly depends on the technological-independent innovation, which is caused by the domestic investment in science and technology, so the overall technical effects are negative. Therefore, China should optimize the structure of export trade, promote technological innovation, and cultivate green advantage industries by increasing investment in scientific research and development; implement a gradient environmental regulation policy; and improve the quality and level of foreign direct investment.