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Abstract
BackgroundMalaria transmission is complex, involving a range of hydroclimatological, biological, and environmental processes. The high degree of non-linearity in these processes makes it difficult to predict and intervene against malaria. This study seeks both to define a minimal number of malaria transmission determinants, and to provide a theoretical basis for sustainable environmental manipulation to prevent malaria transmission.MethodsUsing a field-tested mechanistic malaria model, HYDREMATS, a theoretical study was conducted under hypothetical conditions. Simulations were conducted with a range of hydroclimatological and environmental conditions: temperature (t), length of wet season (Twet), storm inter-arrival time (Tint), persistence of vector breeding pools (Ton), and distribution of houses from breeding pools and from each other (Xdist and Ydist, respectively). Based on the theoretical study, a malaria time scale, To, and a predictive theory of malaria transmission were introduced. The performance of the predictive theory was compared against the observational malaria transmission data in West Africa. Population density was used to estimate the scale that describes the spatial distribution of houses.ResultsThe predictive theory shows a universality in malaria endemic conditions when plotted using two newly-introduced dimension-less parameters. The projected malaria transmission potential compared well with the observation data, and the apparent differences were discussed. The results illustrate the importance of spatial aspects in malaria transmission.ConclusionsThe predictive theory is useful in measuring malaria transmission potential, and it can also provide guidelines on how to plan the layout of human habitats in order to prevent endemic malaria. Malaria-resistant villages can be designed by locating houses further than critical distances away from breeding pools or by removing pools within a critical distance from houses; the critical distance is described in the context of local climatology and hydrology.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1633-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Highlights
Malaria transmission is complex, involving a range of hydroclimatological, biological, and environmental processes
Instead of the commonly used parameter of monthly or daily rainfall amount [12, 20], three hydrological variables were employed in this study: length of the rainy season (Twet), the proportion of pool persistence (Ton), and the storm inter-arrival time (Tint)
The critical distances to prevent malaria found in this study provide guidance for resource allocation
Summary
Malaria transmission is complex, involving a range of hydroclimatological, biological, and environmental processes. The high degree of non-linearity in these processes makes it difficult to predict and intervene against malaria. This study seeks both to define a minimal number of malaria transmission determinants, and to provide a theoretical basis for sustainable environmental manipulation to prevent malaria transmission. Climatological, hydrological, and biological factors interact non-linearly at various stages of the transmission cycle and shape malaria transmission dynamics. Another key element of malaria transmission dynamics is environmental factors. Climatological, hydrological, and biological factors are hardly controllable; malaria treatment interventions require continuous effort to attenuate or avoid the impact of those factors. Facing the low momentum in the public health arena of malaria control, due to fatigue of donors, spread of drug-resistance, fragile health infrastructures etc., prevention approaches, as opposed to treatment approaches, Endo and Eltahir Malar J (2016) 15:578 could be more sustainable and cost-effective in fighting malaria
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