Abstract
Reports from state health departments and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicate that the annual number of reported human vibriosis cases in New England has increased in the past decade. Concurrently, there has been a shift in both the spatial distribution and seasonal detection of Vibrio spp. throughout the region based on limited monitoring data. To determine environmental factors that may underlie these emerging conditions, this study focuses on a long-term database of Vibrio parahaemolyticus concentrations in oyster samples generated from data collected from the Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire over a period of seven consecutive years. Oyster samples from two distinct sites were analyzed for V. parahaemolyticus abundance, noting significant relationships with various biotic and abiotic factors measured during the same period of study. We developed a predictive modeling tool capable of estimating the likelihood of V. parahaemolyticus presence in coastal New Hampshire oysters. Results show that the inclusion of chlorophyll a concentration to an empirical model otherwise employing only temperature and salinity variables, offers improved predictive capability for modeling the likelihood of V. parahaemolyticus in the Great Bay Estuary.
Highlights
Despite the cool coastal water temperatures characteristic of the New England states in Northeast United States, V. parahaemolyticus and other potentially pathogenic Vibrio spp. are recurrently detected in regional coastal ecosystems during the warm summer months, PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0155018 May 4, 2016Modeling Conditions for Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Great Bay Estuary, New HampshireNew Hampshire Sea Grant program grants R/CE-137, R/SSS-2, R/HCE- 3
We present here an analysis of relationships between environmental parameters and V. parahaemolyticus presence and concentrations in oyster samples collected from two sites in the Great Bay Estuary over seven years
V. parahaemolyticus closely follows the seasonality of temperature in the estuary, with observed increases and decreases in concentrations as surface temperatures increased and decreased
Summary
Despite the cool coastal water temperatures characteristic of the New England states in Northeast United States, V. parahaemolyticus and other potentially pathogenic Vibrio spp. are recurrently detected in regional coastal ecosystems during the warm summer months, PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0155018 May 4, 2016Modeling Conditions for Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Great Bay Estuary, New HampshireNew Hampshire Sea Grant program (http://seagrant. unh.edu/) grants R/CE-137, R/SSS-2, R/HCE- 3. Despite the cool coastal water temperatures characteristic of the New England states in Northeast United States, V. parahaemolyticus and other potentially pathogenic Vibrio spp. are recurrently detected in regional coastal ecosystems during the warm summer months, PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0155018. Modeling Conditions for Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript
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