Abstract

The influence of environmental variables (oceanographic and climatic) on the catch rates of striped red mullet (Mullus surmuletus) by artisanal fishery was investigated using different time series models (Dynamic Factorial Analyses; Min-Max Factorial Analyses and Generalized Least Square models). Climatic and oceanographic survey data were collected at different areas of the Portuguese coast (Northwestern, Southwestern and South-Algarve) with distinct oceanographic regimes. Time series analyses reveal an effect of fishing effort in catch rates in Southwestern areas. Variability in M. surmuletus catch rates was associated to regional environmental multi-controls. Upwelling and westerly winds were the main drivers of catch rates variability across the three areas but the type of relationship varied among them. A consistent relationship between catch rates and environment factors was identified during the peak period of seasonal recruitment (spring to summer) in Southwest and South-Algarve coast, with Upwelling-summer and Sea surface temperature-spring affecting short term (lag 2 years) catch rates. In South-Algarve the increase in SST in summer, during peak of spawning, was correlated with the catch rate increase with a lag of two years. Environmental effect on catch rates reveals that fisheries management needs to accommodate the regional effect of environment variables on species biology to better define future assessment plans (catch limits).

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