Abstract
BackgroundA growing body of evidence suggests that dams intensify malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the environmental characteristics underpinning patterns in malaria transmission around dams are poorly understood. This study investigated local-scale environmental and meteorological variables linked to malaria transmission around three large dams in Ethiopia.MethodsMonthly malaria incidence data (2010–2014) were collected from health centres around three dams located at lowland, midland and highland elevations in Ethiopia. Environmental (elevation, distance from the reservoir shoreline, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), monthly reservoir water level, monthly changes in water level) and meteorological (precipitation, and minimum and maximum air temperature) data were analysed to determine their relationship with monthly malaria transmission at each dam using correlation and stepwise multiple regression analysis.ResultsVillage distance to reservoir shoreline (lagged by 1 and 2 months) and monthly change in water level (lagged by 1 month) were significantly correlated with malaria incidence at all three dams, while NDVI (lagged by 1 and 2 months) and monthly reservoir water level (lagged by 2 months) were found to have a significant influence at only the lowland and midland dams. Precipitation (lagged by 1 and 2 months) was also significantly associated with malaria incidence, but only at the lowland dam, while minimum and maximum air temperatures (lagged by 1 and 2 months) were important factors at only the highland dam.ConclusionThis study confirmed that reservoir-associated factors (distance from reservoir shoreline, monthly average reservoir water level, monthly water level change) were important predictors of increased malaria incidence in villages around Ethiopian dams in all elevation settings. Reservoir water level management should be considered as an additional malaria vector control tool to help manage malaria transmission around dams.
Highlights
A growing body of evidence suggests that dams intensify malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa
The present study aims to investigate relationships among a number of environmental and meteorological factors associated with malaria transmission around Ethiopian dams in three ecological settings: highland, midland and lowland elevations
Spatial and temporal variation in malaria incidence Mean monthly malaria incidence was 1.7- and 5.6-times higher at the lowland dam than the midland and highland dam dams, respectively (Table 1)
Summary
A growing body of evidence suggests that dams intensify malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. The environmental characteristics underpinning patterns in malaria transmission around dams are poorly understood. Malaria is a serious public health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, with an estimated 200 million cases of malaria in 2017 alone [1]. This region accounts for 92% of the global malaria burden [1]. Dams have been shown to contribute to over 1 million malaria cases annually in sub-Saharan Africa [15]. The extent to which various environmental and climatic factors may have contributed to enhanced rates of malaria transmission around these sites remains poorly understood
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