Environmental and individual correlates of common pochard (Aythya ferina) nesting success

Abstract

Common pochard (Aythya ferina) is a harvested diving duck that has experienced a decline in population size over the past 20 years in Europe. This decline has been hypothesized to result from reduced breeding success in strongholds of Central Europe. Thus, assessing factors underlying breeding success is a priority. To evaluate determinants of nesting success, we modelled daily survival probabilities of nests on Grand-Lieu Lake, France. Nest survival rates varied with female age and annually (range, 5% for the worst year in yearling females to 74% for the best year in adult females). The effect of year was entirely absorbed by the onset of laying, computed separately by age, with higher survival rates observed in both adults and in years of early onset of nesting. Nest survival was also positively correlated with clutch size and female body condition. Nest survival was related negatively to numbers of neighbouring nests destroyed. Area of open water, wet meadows and sedge tussocks had a positive influence on nest survival; in contrast, that of willows had a negative influence. Spring temperatures on one hand and cumulative rainfall and water levels on the other were positively and negatively correlated to the annual start of nesting, respectively, although these factors were not retained in the best-approximating models for daily survival probabilities. Nest survival seemed to depend most on female quality, including timing of nesting, and to variables affecting predation risk. Management actions targeting these variables could therefore be the best way to improve nesting success in this species.