Abstract
In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), diets are largely based on cereal or root staple crops. Together with socio-cultural change, economic and demographic growth could boost the demand for meat, with significant environmental repercussions. We model meat consumption pathways to 2050 for SSA based on several scenarios calibrated on historical demand drivers. To assess the consequent environmental impact, we adopt an environmentally-extended input-output (EEIO) framework and apply it on the EXIOBASE 3.3 hybrid tables. We find that, depending on the interplay of resources efficiency and demand growth, by 2050 the growth in meat consumption in SSA could cause a growth in greenhouse gases emissions of 1.4 [0.9–1.9] Gt CO2e/yr (~175% of current regional agriculture-related emissions), which is an extension of cropping and grazing-related land of 15 [12.5–21] · 106 km2 (one quarter of today’s global agricultural land), the consumption of an additional 36 [29–47] Gm3/yr of blue water (nearly doubling the current regional agricultural consumption), an eutrophication potential growth of 7.6 [4.9–9.5] t PO4e/yr, and the consumption of additional 0.9 [0.5–1.4] EJ/yr of fossil fuels and 49 [32–73] TWh/yr of electricity. These results suggest that—in the absence of significant improvements in the regional sectoral resource efficiency—meat demand growth in SSA is bound to become a major global sustainability challenge. In addition, we show that a partial substitution of the protein intake from the expected growth in meat consumption with plant-based alternatives carries additional significant potential for mitigating environmental impacts. The policies affecting both farming practices and dietary choices will thus have a significant impact on the SSA and global environmental flows.
Highlights
Food, diets, and nutrition—together with a steeply growing human population—are determining the escalation of several grand environmental challenges [1,2,3]
The extended input-output (EEIO) analysis exploits a table of technical coefficients and environmental extensions with schematic assumptions over the future changes in productive efficiency to evaluate the ranges of potential environmental impact from the increased meat consumption
Our projections follow non-linear growth trends and encompass a larger range of variability compared to the FAO projections, for which all three scenarios predict a very narrow outcome range for 2050
Summary
Diets, and nutrition—together with a steeply growing human population—are determining the escalation of several grand environmental challenges [1,2,3]. In response to these growing issues, numerous global assessments of the future of food systems and the sectoral environmental footprint have been carried out [4,5], including initiatives such as the EAT-Lancet Commission [2]. The agri-food sector is responsible for other major environmental impacts [9,10,11], including land use change and degradation [12], biodiversity loss [13], and water consumption and contamination [14]. The projected increase in the global food demand [16] coupled with a growing share of animal-based products [17]
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