Abstract
In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) diets are largely based on cereal or root staple crops. Together with socio-cultural change, economic and demographic growth could boost the demand for meat, with significant environmental repercussions. We model meat consumption pathways to 2050 for SSA based on several scenarios calibrated on historical demand drivers. To assess the consequent environmental impact, we adopt an environmentally-extended input-output (EEIO) framework and apply it on the EXIOBASE 3.3 hybrid tables. We find that, depending on the interplay of resources efficiency and demand growth, by 2050 global greenhouse gases emissions could grow by 1.4 [0.9-1.9] Gt CO2e/yr (~175% of current regional agriculture-related emissions), cropping and grazing-related land may cover additional 15 [12.5-21] · 106 km2 (one quarter of today’s global agricultural land), blue water consumption could rise by 36 [29-47] Gm3 /yr (nearly doubling the current regional agricultural consumption), the eutrophication potential could grow by 7.6 [4.9-9.5] t PO4e/yr and additional 0.9 [0.5-1.4] EJ/yr of fossil fuels and 49 [32-73] TWh/yr of electricity may be consumed. These results suggest that – in the absence of drastic resource efficiency or technological improvements – meat demand in SSA is bound to become a major sustainability challenge. We show that a partial substitution of the protein intake with plant-based alternatives carries significant potential for mitigating these impacts. The policies affecting farming practices and dietary choices will thus have a significant impact on regional and global environmental flows.
Highlights
Food, diets, and nutrition—together with a steeply growing human population—are determining the escalation of several grand environmental challenges [1,2,3]
The extended input-output (EEIO) analysis exploits a table of technical coefficients and environmental extensions with schematic assumptions over the future changes in productive efficiency to evaluate the ranges of potential environmental impact from the increased meat consumption
Our projections follow non-linear growth trends and encompass a larger range of variability compared to the FAO projections, for which all three scenarios predict a very narrow outcome range for 2050
Summary
Diets, and nutrition—together with a steeply growing human population—are determining the escalation of several grand environmental challenges [1,2,3]. In response to these growing issues, numerous global assessments of the future of food systems and the sectoral environmental footprint have been carried out [4,5], including initiatives such as the EAT-Lancet Commission [2]. The agri-food sector is responsible for other major environmental impacts [9,10,11], including land use change and degradation [12], biodiversity loss [13], and water consumption and contamination [14]. The projected increase in the global food demand [16] coupled with a growing share of animal-based products [17]
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