Environmental Analysis and Distribution Patterns of Aedes Aegypti Mosquito to Predict DHF Endemicity Area in Karo District

Abstract

In 2018 there were 81 cases, IR: 19.77 per 100,000 population based on the initial survey at the health office there were 131 cases, the highest was at Kabanjahe Health Center: 46, the lowest was at Kuta Buluh Health Center: 2 and Lau Baleng Health Center 2 cases. The purpose of this study was to analyze environmental factors and distribution patterns to predict areas prone to dengue fever in Karo Regency. The analysis is divided into 3 categories, namely the District Level using time series data analysis, forecasting (Arima) which aims for Early Warning Sign, the Kelurahan/Village level using GIS data processing describing the sub-districts as very vulnerable, vulnerable and not vulnerable. Individual level using case control design, chi square test analysis and mapping with GIS aims to describe the distribution of areas with dengue fever and exposure behavior that affects the incidence of dengue and see the most dominant factor using multiple logistic regression analysis. The density of larvae is the most influential factor with the density of Aedes Aegypti in Karo Regency with Exp B 4,102 (p-value ,000, 95% CI ,333 – 18,012), Community behavior (knowledge, actions and attitudes) has no relationship with Aedes Aegypti density in Karo Regency. Population density based on distribution pattern has no relationship with Aedes Aegypti density in Karo Regency, Occupancy density has no relationship with Aedes Aegypti density in Karo Regency, House index (HI) in Karo Regency is at Density Figure (4) at medium density, Container index (CI) and Breteau index (BI) are in the Density Figure (9) in high density and the larva-free rate at 72.54% is below the national standard of 95%, There are clusters of cases that have a risk of 2.69 times affected by DHF for patients who are in the cluster compared to patients who are outside the cluster, the cluster radius is 2.76 km.