Entwicklung der Leistungsempfängerzahlen in der Gesetzlichen Pflegeversicherung – Zum Einfluss unterschiedlicher Morbiditätsannahmen auf die Entwicklung der sozialrechtlich anerkannten Pflegebedürftigkeit in Deutschland

Abstract

Abstract Demographic change in Germany will lead to a higher number of people in need of long-term care and an increasing demand for Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) services. While the general rise in beneficiaries is not controversial, there is uncertainty about the magnitude of change, which also depends on the development of morbidity patterns. Simulations show that the number of LTCI beneficiaries is likely to double through 2080 if age- and sex-specific prevalence rates are held constant; following this scenario, life expectancy spend in long-term care is going to rise in absolute as well as relative terms. Even in scenarios simulating a compression of need for long-term care a general increase in the number of beneficiaries is unavoidable. Beside the number of LTCI beneficiaries other factors like the number of informal caregivers or the adjustment of LTCI benefit levels also influence the financial development of LTCI. Zusammenfassung Die Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Deutschland wird zu einer zukunft...