Entropy-weighted water quality index, hydrogeochemistry, and Monte Carlo simulation of source-specific health risks of groundwater in the Morava River plain (Serbia)

Abstract

Population growth, urbanization, industry, floods, and agriculture globally degrade groundwater in river plains, necessitating action for its quality assessment and management. Hence, a comprehensive methodology, including hydrogeochemical facies (Piper, Gibbs), irrigation indices (SAR, Wilcox), entropy-weighted water quality index (EWQI), positive matrix factorization (PMF), and Monte Carlo simulation of source-specific health risks was used in this study to analyze groundwater in the Morava river plain (Serbia). The results revealed a prevalent Ca–Mg–HCO3 groundwater type, influenced by water–rock interactions. Although groundwater was found suitable for irrigation, only 66.7 % of the samples were considered drinkable. Agricultural activities, natural processes, and municipal wastewater were identified as primary pollution sources. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) and hazard index (HI) threshold exceedance for adults and children ranged from 8.5 % to 39 % of the samples, with arsenic identified as the most risk-contributing contaminant. These findings provide valuable insights for researchers studying groundwater vulnerability in river plains.