Entropy-weighted comprehensive evaluation of petroleum flow in China during 1980–2015

Abstract

Abstract Based on a Material Flow Analysis (MFA) framework, a system of Material Flow Indicators for Petroleum Flows (MFIs-PF) in China during 1980–2015 was established and Comprehensively Evaluated (CE) using the entropy method. The comprehensive evaluation represented petroleum flows efficiency in terms of three different aspects: petroleum inputs, flows, and outputs. The CE results showed that petroleum flows efficiency exhibited a slow increase by 45%, with fluctuations for the period 1980–2015. However, there were significant differences among the developmental trajectories of the MFIs-PF. With respect to inputs indicators, direct petroleum inputs occupied the biggest weight in MFIs-PF system, furthermore, the direct petroleum inputs and dependence on petroleum imports grew rapidly, increasing from 106 million tonnes and 0.3% in 1980 to 550 million tonnes and 61% in 2015, respectively. Regarding flows indicators, the growth rate of petroleum production was slower than that of petroleum consumption, and the average of elasticity of petroleum production and consumption were approximately 0.23 and 0.73, respectively. In addition, the increase of the net addition to stocks reduced fluctuations in CE since 2010. Output indicators played a negative role in the development of petroleum flow efficiency and increased environmental load. Petroleum-related CO2 emissions grew by 4.3 times with the increase in petroleum consumption from 1980 to 2015 and expected to peak in 2035. While indirect CO2 emissions of petroleum flows processes fluctuated within the range of 96–217 kg CO2/t petroleum, with an average of 153 kg CO2/t petroleum. Driven by the policies, broadening the sources of petroleum imports, increasing domestic petroleum stock, and improving the efficiency of petroleum utilization are effective measures to increase the petroleum flows efficiency.