Abstract
Uncertainty is one of the main sources of risk of geological hazards in tunnel engineering. Uncertainty information not only affects the accuracy of evaluation results, but also affects the reliability of decision-making schemes. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate and control the impact of uncertainty on risk. In this study, the problems in the existing entropy-hazard model such as inefficient decision-making and failure of decision-making are analysed, and an improved uncertainty evaluation and control process are proposed. Then the tolerance cost, the key factor in the decision-making model, is also discussed. It is considered that the amount of change in risk value () can better reflect the psychological behaviour of decision-makers. Thirdly, common multi-attribute decision-making models, such as the expected utility-entropy model, are analysed, and then the viewpoint of different types of decision-making issues that require different decision methods is proposed. The well-known Allais paradox is explained by the proposed methods. Finally, the engineering application results show that the uncertainty control idea proposed here is accurate and effective. This research indicates a direction for further research into uncertainty, and risk control, issues affecting underground engineering works.
Highlights
Tunnelling is an important part of infrastructure projects that can improve connections, improve the quality of life and promote economic development
The target is to assess the impact of uncertainty and determine whether measures needed to reduce uncertainty, which represents significant progress for risk control in tunnel engineering; there are still some deficiencies in the related research results, mainly including: (1) as there are many factors that affect the uncertainty, the available measures to reduce the uncertainty will be much, and there will be blind to decision-making by these models; (2) control measures only considering cost may be unreasonable, as other factors such as time
As geological uncertainty is the main feature of geotechnical engineering, according to the latest definition of risk, it can be known that uncertainty exerts a significant impact on risk control
Summary
Tunnelling is an important part of infrastructure projects that can improve connections, improve the quality of life and promote economic development. To improve the effectiveness of risk control, it is necessary to describe objectively the uncertainty and reduce the impact of uncertainty on assessment and decision-making The former has been widely discussed, but the latter has not attracted enough attention. The target is to assess the impact of uncertainty and determine whether measures needed to reduce uncertainty, which represents significant progress for risk control in tunnel engineering; there are still some deficiencies in the related research results, mainly including: (1) as there are many factors that affect the uncertainty, the available measures to reduce the uncertainty will be much, and there will be blind to decision-making by these models; (2) control measures only considering cost may be unreasonable, as other factors such as time.
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