Abstract
There has been at least one conflict in Uganda in each of the four decades since independence in 1962. However, since 1986 when Yoweri Museveni gained power, relative peace and security have been restored, which have in turn supported sustained economic growth. Collier and Reinikka (2001) point out that civil wars create intense inter-group hatreds and grievances, which persist in post-conflict society, increasing the probability of the re-emergence of civil conflict, which could explain the recurrence of conflict in Uganda. Given the profound gaps between popular perceptions on the causes of conflict, economic theory and empirical results, the choice of policy responses for post-conflict economies remains an important debate. Models using global data to predict the risk of conflict occurring are limited by country-specific factors. In this chapter we consider the experience of Uganda from the perspective of global models, and review the particular factors relevant to Uganda.
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