Abstract
This article seeks to predict and explain when the process of national independence is accompanied by military conflict. In order to account for military conflict in 121 cases of national independence from 1816-1980, a LISREL model (with multiple indicators) with the following variables is employed: (a) the intrinsic importance of the territory gaining independence, (b) the specific importance of the territory to the former sovereign, (c) the relative power decline of the former sovereign, and (d) international norms at the time of the independence. All variables but the first are statistically significant, and the model accounts for half of the variation in the incidence of military conflict. The international norms variable was found to be the strongest predictor of military conflict. Implications for theory and policy are discussed.
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