ENSO Modulation of Global MJO and Its Impacts on South America

Abstract

Abstract Changes in the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and its impacts on the South American monsoon season during different El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) states [El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN), neutral (NT)] are analyzed in the global context of the MJO-propagating anomalies of convection and circulation. The background ENSO-related changes influence several aspects of MJO (relative occurrence of phases, propagation, convection, and teleconnections), and therefore modify the MJO impacts on South America (SA), such as precipitation anomalies and frequency of extreme events, as well as their distribution throughout the MJO cycle. Among the changes are the following: 1) a delay in the teleconnection between the central-east Pacific and SA, from MJO phase 8 in LN (MJOLNphase8) to MJO phase1 in EN (MJOENphase1); 2) enhanced MJO convection in the central-east subtropical South Pacific in MJOLNphases7 + 8 and a little farther east in MJOENphases8 + 1, in a region efficient in generating teleconnections that produce rainfall anomalies over central-east SA (CESA), especially the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), strongest one phase earlier in LN (MJOLNphase8) than in EN (MJOENphase1), and a little shifted east in the latter than in the former; 3) enhancement of the extratropical teleconnection and its impacts over the SACZ in both EN and LN (with regard to NT), indicating nonlinear effects on MJO impacts over SA; 4) predominant increase (or reduction) in the frequency of extreme events over SA regions where both ENSO and MJO contribute in the same direction, with the greatest increase over CESA during EN in MJOENphase1 and over Southeast SA (SESA) in MJOENphase3. Significance Statement The changes produced by different El Niño–Southern Oscillation background states (neutral, El Niño, La Niña) in the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and its impacts on precipitation over South America (SA) are disclosed for the austral summer monsoon season, when MJO is strongest. The reliability of the results is enhanced by using observed rainfall data. The background states affect MJO propagation, circulation, and convection, producing significant differences in precipitation and extremes over densely populated regions, besides phase shifts of the strongest impacts. The results are relevant to subseasonal prediction, since MJO is a key predictability source, to validate models and describe realistically the impacts over SA in each MJO phase. Models’ skill in simulating these results is assessed in a follow-up work.