Abstract
Model initialization is a key process of climate predictions using dynamical models. In this study, the authors evaluated the performances of two distinct initialization approaches—anomaly and full...
Highlights
El Niño–Southern oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant air–sea coupling mode of the climate system and has striking impacts on the global climate system (Aceituno 1992; Alexander et al 2002; McPhaden, Zebiak, and Glantz 2006; Wang, Wu, and Fu 2000; Webster et al 1998)
Significant correlations are apparent in most areas of the Pacific, tropical Indian Ocean, and North Atlantic at 1-month lead time (Figure 1(a))
The highest skill scores are in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific (CEP), a key area of ENSO
Summary
El Niño–Southern oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant air–sea coupling mode of the climate system and has striking impacts on the global climate system (Aceituno 1992; Alexander et al 2002; McPhaden, Zebiak, and Glantz 2006; Wang, Wu, and Fu 2000; Webster et al 1998). The dominant feature of El Niño Modoki is maximum warm SSTAs in the equatorial central Pacific around the date line and weak negative SSTAs in the equatorial western and eastern Pacific. Because of its strong variability and substantial global climate impacts, ENSO has always been a central target of seasonal and interannual climate predictions (see review by Barnston et al 2012). Some strong ENSO events can be predicted by dynamic models at 1-yr or even longer lead times, and most moderate and weak ENSO events can be predicted several months in advance
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