Abstract
Changes in winter climate variability in the North Atlantic European (NAE) region associated with El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in a warmer climate are investigated. The study is based on two 20-member ensembles of numerical integrations by utilizing an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of intermediate complexity. Current climate experiment is based on simulations forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SST) for the period 1855–2002. The warmer climate corresponds to the doubled CO2 concentration with SST forcing represented by the same SST anomalies as in the current climate experiment superimposed on the climatological SST that was obtained from a complex atmosphere–ocean general circulation model forced with the doubled CO2. A composite analysis of atmospheric response is based on categorization into warm and cold composites according to the strength of SST anomalies in the Nino3.4 region.
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