Abstract

The temporal evolution of small and large ensembles is examined for the Lorenz equations. It is shown that a general closed system of ensemble averaged equations can be developed for the Lorenz equations, independent of the size of the ensemble. The closure is based on the method of Rothmayer & Black (1993). The present formulation gives a deterministic set of equations for the description of ensembles of the Lorenz attractor. Large ensemble solutions of the strange attractor computed in this study are found to be regular, without the sensitive dependence on initial conditions which characterizes the individual chaotic members of the ensemble.

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